地区市场的总回报要高过首府城市的

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Regional Markets Are Experiencing Superior Total Returns To Those In The Capital Cities

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The CoreLogic total returns index measures the change in values and the rental return to determine the total gross returns from residential property.  The total returns index is valuable for investors as it shows the expectation of returns much like the ASX 200 Accumulation Index provides insights into the total returns (ie change in the overall stock value plus dividend value) for equities investors.

CoreLogic cumulative change in dwelling values, Feb 06 to Feb018

The CoreLogic total returns index is available from the middle of 2005, looking at the change in the index over the 12 years to February 2018, the returns from capital city properties has been substantially higher (196.2%) than the returns across the combined regional markets (136.0%).  It should be noted that over that period, value growth was substantially higher across the capital cities than it was for regional markets with values increasing by 83.7% and 29.0% respectively.  At the same time, gross rental yields have been substantially higher across the regional areas than they have been in the capital cities.

While over the long-term the total returns have been much greater in the capital city markets than regional areas, the story has changed substantially over recent times.  With already higher rental returns in regional markets, the regional markets are now also experiencing higher rates of value growth than those in the capital cities.

CoreLogic total returns from residential property

Over the three months to February 2018, the total returns from residential property nationally were 0.0%. While the national figure shows flat returns there is a significant difference between returns across the combined regional markets (+2.0%) and combined capital cities -0.4%).  Taking a look at each individual capital city and the corresponding rest of state area in each state and territory, the rest of state markets have recorded stronger total returns over the quarter than the capital cities. In NSW, Vic and NT in particular, the spread between capital city and regional market returns is significant.

CoreLogic total returns from residential property

Although the stronger housing market performance in regional markets may seem like a recent occurrence, looking at total returns, the regional areas have been outperforming capital cities for more than a year.  This is due to higher rental yields and improving rates of value growth.  Over the past 12 months, total returns were recorded at 5.9% however, returns for regional properties (8.1%) were superior to those in capital cities.  Across the states and territories, Melbourne Adelaide and Hobart were the only capital cities in which total returns were superior in the capital city than in the rest of state areas and Hobart was the only city where the difference was substantial.  In NSW, returns from regional properties were almost double those in capital cities.

With capital growth prospects likely to be softer over the coming years, investors in residential property may need to be more focussed on total returns (a combination of value growth and capital growth) rather than just capital growth.  Regional markets, especially those relatively close to capital cities are currently experiencing relatively strong value growth and superior yields to the capital cities.  For this reason, investment in these regions may in fact be a better option over the coming few years than investment in capital city properties.

One important thing to note is that the rental yield component is a gross figure and assumes the property is occupied for 52 weeks of the year.  Of course that won’t be the case for all properties and particularly if you are going to invest for total returns you need to choose properties that are highly desirable to ensure that you have the best opportunity to have it occupied throughout the year.

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CoreLogic总回报指数衡量价值和租金回报的变化,以确定住宅物业的总回报。总收益指数对投资者有非常大的价值,因为它显示预期回报,就像ASX 200积累指数提供股票投资者总回报的深入了解(即,在整个股票价值的变化加上股息价值)。

CoreLogic cumulative change in dwelling values, Feb 06 to Feb018

CoreLogic总回报指数从2005年中旬提供到现在,从到20182月这12年的指数变化来看,首府城市房地产的回报( 196.2%)比地区市场的(136.0%)高得多。值得注意的是,在这个时期,首府城市房产的增长速度明显高于地区市场,增速分别为83.7%和29.0%。与此同时,地区的总租金收益率远高于首府城市的。

 

尽管长期来看,首府城市的总回报一直远高于地区的,但近期的情况发生了很大变化。由于地区市场的租金回报已经很高,相对于首府城市,地区市场正经历更高的价值增长率。

 

CoreLogic total returns from residential property

 

在截至20182月的三个月内,全国住宅物业的总回报为0.0%。尽管全国数据显示平稳的回报,但地区市场(+ 2.0%)与首府城市市场(- 0.4)之间的收益存在着显着差异。单看每个独立的首府城市以及相应州和领地的其他地区,其他地区这个季度的总回报高于首府城市的。尤其在新南威尔士州,维多利亚州和北领地,首府城市和地区市场回报之间的差距非常大。

 

CoreLogic total returns from residential property

尽管地区市场的房地产市场表现强劲看起来是近期发生的,但从总收益看,区域地区的表现超过首府城市的已经有一年以上。这是由于更高的租金收益率和价值增长率。在过去的12个月中,总回报为5.9%,但地区房地产的回报(8.1%)优于首府城市的。在各个州和领地,墨尔本阿德莱德和霍巴特是仅有的首府城市,总回报高于其他地区,而霍巴特是唯一一个差距巨大的城市。在新州,地区物业的回报几乎是首府城市的两倍。

由于未来几年资本增长的前景可能会放缓,住宅物业投资者可能需要更多地关注总回报(价值增长与资本增长相结合),而不仅仅是资本增长。地区市场,特别是那些相对靠近首府城市的市场,目前正在经历相对强劲的价值增长以及优先于首府城市的收益率。出于这个原因,在未来几年,这些地区的物业投资实际上可能比在首府城市投资要更好。

需要注意的一点是,租金收益部分是一个总体数字,并假定该物业已被占用了一年的52周。当然,对于所有房产而言,情况并非如此,特别是如果您要投资于总回报,您需要选择非常理想的房产,以确保最好的机会使该房产一年中都能租出去。

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