Treasurer Scott Morrison’s budget speech for 2018/19 featured a reflection on the physical transport assets being delivered by government. In addition, the major new transport infrastructure initiatives announced were a $1 billion Urban Congestion Package, and a $3.5 billion freight road upgrade package. These works will be key to capitalising on the rise of goods distribution anticipated through increased use of online shopping, the rebound in exports driven by economic growth in south-east Asia and low Australian dollar relative to the USD, and the rise of agriculture.

However, the budget papers indicate a decline in spending in infrastructure on the 2017-18 financial year. In his speech, Morrison cited 14 major infrastructure projects encompassed in the rolling 10 year $75 billion infrastructure investment strategy. The list of projects is not necessarily reflective of new works to commence in the 2018/19 financial year. Of the major infrastructure projects cited in the budget, at least 8 had been announced by the time the previous budget was handed down, suggesting much of these were re-announcements. The Bridgewater Bridge for example, a $750 million bridge to span across the Derwent River in Tasmania, was first reported by Cordell in 2011.

In total, the budget papers estimate $5.3 billion in road expenditure, and $1.2 billion on rail. These areas of funding are expected to slow by 31% and 48.9% respectively, in real terms, by 2021-22. Infrastructure spending estimates and projections over the next four years are shown in Figure 1.

“Innovative methods” of funding

The budget papers partially attribute the decline in transport infrastructure spending to “innovative methods” of funding.’ Some of the methods of infrastructure financing employed over the financial year ensure that spending stays out of the budget balance.

One such innovation is equity investment. This means that the government invests in assets or transport management companies with a view to make a commercial return, rather than providing direct funding grants to build infrastructure. One of the benefits of equity investment is that, because the expenditure contributes to government assets, the spending does not appear on the budget as expenditure.

In addition to the $9.1 billion in expenditure outlined in the full budget paper, the government is funding $9.3 billion of the inland rail line, from Melbourne to Brisbane, through equity investment. A commitment of $5 billion to the Melbourne Airport Rail Link is also being explored for equity options. $5.3 billion in equity investment will be used in establishing the WSA Co., to deliver the Western Sydney Airport. Had these three projects alone been funded through government grants, the deficit may have blown out to $34.1 billion.

At first glance, this seems like sound approach to infrastructure investment. The government is acquiring commercial assets to deliver infrastructure, which will likely increase economic capacity and potentially productivity. Keeping large scale infrastructure funding off the balance sheet maintains a healthy appearance of debt, which is crucial for attracting investment in Australia.

However, the downside is that these assets need to deliver a financial return, otherwise the government may be unable to repay the debt borrowed to fund equity investments. In other words, these investments may manifest in the budget deficit in the long term.

A return on these infrastructure assets mean they need to be sellable and profitable. Profitability may be sought through tolls and charges, which ultimately eat into the pockets of consumers and businesses.

财务秘书Scott Morrison 2018/19年度的预算演讲反映了政府提供的实体交通资产。此外，宣布的主要新交通基础设施举措包括价值10亿澳元的城市拥堵方案和价值35亿澳元的freight road升级方案。这些措施对于利用产品分销的增加（从网上购物的增加中可以预见的），受到东南亚经济增长和低的澳元兑美元汇率带动的出口反弹，以及农业上涨等预期，将是非常关键的。

不过，预算文件显示2017-18财政年度的基建支出有所下降。Morrison在他的演讲中列举了14个主要的基础设施项目，包含在一个10年750亿澳元的基础设施投资战略之中。项目清单并不一定反映2018/19财政年度将要开展的新工作。在预算中提到的主要基础设施项目中，至少有8项是在上次预算交付时宣布的，这表明其中大部分是重新公布。例如，价值7.5亿澳元横跨塔斯马尼亚-德温特河的Bridgewater大桥，就是2011年首次由Cordell报道的。

总体上，预算文件估计道路支出为53亿澳元，铁路则为12亿澳元。预计到2021-22年，这些资金领域将分别实际减少31％和48.9％。图1显示了未来四年基础设施支出的估算和预测。

资金的“创新方法”

预算文件将运输基础设施支出的下降部分归因于资金的“创新方法”。“在财政年度采用的一些基础设施融资方法确保了支出没有超出预算平衡。

其中一项创新就是股权投资。这意味着政府投资于资产或运输管理公司，以期取得商业回报，而不是提供直接的基金拨款来建设基础设施。股权投资的好处之一是，由于支出有助于政府资产，因此花费不会作为支出出现在预算中。

除了完整预算文件中列出的91亿澳元支出外，政府还通过股权投资为墨尔本至布里斯班的内陆铁路线融资93亿澳元。对墨尔本机场铁路承诺额的50亿澳元，也正在为股权选择进行探索。53亿澳元的股权投资将用于建立WSA公司，来交付西悉尼机场。如果仅通过政府补助资助这三个项目，赤字就可能已经飞到341亿澳元了。

乍一看，这似乎是对基础设施投资的合理方法。政府正在收购商业资产以提供基础设施建设，这可能会提高经济承受能力和潜在的生产力。把大型基础设施资金从资产负债表上拿走能够保持健康的债务状态，这对吸引投资到澳大利亚至关重要。

然而，不利之处在于这些资产需要提供财务回报，否则政府可能无法偿还以资助股权投资而借入的债务。换句话说，这些投资可能表现在长期的预算赤字上。

这些基础设施资产的回报意味着它们需要可销售和有利可图。盈利能力可能会通过过路费和一般收费来寻求，而这最终还是取之消费者和企业的口袋。